This is clearly the best week of games in the NFL season so far, and the betting odds reflect that.
Nine of the 15 matchups had a spread of four points or less as of Thursday morning. Six of those games had a spread of three points or less, including the two biggest games of Week 11. The Rams were laying three points at home against the Seahawks and the Eagles were listed as a 2.5-point home favorite vs. the Lions.
With so many close games, the sharps will be locked in on any odds movement, as they wait for the public to show its hands on these highly-anticipated games in hopes of getting a value number.
Early in the week, the sharps showed support for the Rams, moving the line from -2.5 to a field goal. But there’s also the possibility of the sharps waiting for the odds to move over three points to get a good number on the red-hot Seahawks, who tend to play better on the road since coach Mike Macdonald was hired last year.
“The sharps could be waiting to see whether this game goes up,” says Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director at Station Casinos in Las Vegas. “If it goes -3.5 or over, maybe there’s some value with the Seahawks. Defensively, they’re really good. I love the way [Sam] Darnold has played.
“It’s a bigger game for Seattle to play well because they really haven’t beaten anybody this year. I know you beat who’s in front of you, but you look at the teams they have beaten and they’re not exactly upper-echelon teams.”
Esposito, who always has great betting stats, mentioned that the Seahawks are 1–8 against the spread in their last nine meetings with the Rams. This should be a good game, but I’ll side with the Rams and lay the three points because of their proven track record and Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP level.
The odds also changed slightly for Eagles-Lions. Philadelphia went from a 1.5-point favorite early in the week to laying 2.5 points. Esposito said there’s been solid two-way action on this game, but he’s expecting this odds to change to Eagles -3 before kick off Sunday night.
“There’s a better chance the game goes to three than two just because Philly is at home,” Esposito says. “It’s Sunday night, weather could be a factor, it’s going to be a little chilly there, Detroit is a domed team. But, hey, if we end up needing Detroit, I’m not shy about that if that’s the case. Whoever we need in this game, I’m happy to root for.”
Esposito also shared a good stat for Chiefs vs. Broncos, who are four-point home underdogs. Kansas City is 1–6 against the spread in its last seven games in Denver. Also, the Broncos have a 10-game winning streak at home.
However, those impressive home numbers won’t stop the public from betting on the Chiefs this week, especially because they’re coming off a bye week. Additionally, it’s hard to trust second-year quarterback Bo Nix after how poorly he played at home last week against the Raiders.
“I think we’re going to be a pretty good-sized Broncos fans come Sunday afternoon,” Esposito says.
With more insight from Esposito, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 11.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 11
Bills-Buccaneers hasn’t gotten as much attention with all the intriguing games this week, but the sharps haven’t ignored the battle between Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
According to Esposito, the sharps have shown strong support for the Buccaneers, who are 5.5-point road underdogs. But the public is expecting the Bills to bounce back in dominant fashion after the shocking loss to the Dolphins last week.
“You’re seeing some sharp money on the Bucs, but the public is clearly backing the Bills,” Esposito says.
Odds Movement NFL Week 11
There was a significant jump for Thursday night’s game, with the Patriots going from -10 to laying 13 points at home against the Jets.
New York has won two games since starting 0–7, but New England is in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after winning seven consecutive games.
“The public has already shown, ‘Hey, we’re not afraid of a double-digit number against the Jets,’” Esposito says. “And they’ve been backing the Patriots with both fists so far.”
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 11
The Packers have struggled against the spread this season, but that likely won’t stop the public from laying the seven points for Sunday’s road game against the Giants. That number, however, went down a bit after being -7.5 to open the week.
“Although the number initially came down, I think we’re going to be huge Giants fans for the Sunday morning games,” Esposito says.
Esposito will also be rooting for the Cardinals (+3) at home against the 49ers and Jaguars (+3) at home vs. the Chargers. And, of course, the public will be all over the Ravens (-8) for their road game against the lowly Browns.
Manzano’s NFL Week 11 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Packers (-7) at Giants
I don’t feel good about taking the Packers as a touchdown favorite. They are 0–5 against the spread in those situations and 3–6 overall this season, including not covering as slight favorites in the loss against the Eagles on Monday night.
But I’ll take a chance on the Packers taking out all their frustrations on a Giants team that will start Jameis Winston. Expect Jordan Love to bounce back in a big way.
Enticing Bet: Lions (+2.5) at Eagles
I believe the Eagles are the best team in the NFC. However, I worry about them not being able to keep pace if the Lions’ stacked offense quickly establishes a rhythm against Philly’s new-look defense. It’s concerning that the Eagles and Saquon Barkley have struggled on the ground this season.
Moneyline Dog: Bears (+140) at Vikings
Chicago is a lot better than the team that blew a double-digit lead at home to Minnesota in the season opener. Caleb Williams has shown real progress in recent weeks and could have success against Brian Flores’s defense. More importantly, the Bears know how to be balanced with running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.
SuperDog: Jets (+12.5) at Patriots
I’m sticking to the divisional rules here. Last week, the Raiders covered against the Broncos, and so did the Dolphins, who beat the Bills. And the Panthers lost to the Saints.
I’ll take the points on a Jets team that has played better in recent weeks.
Not So Risky: Bills (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers
Sorry, sharps. I’m going with the Bills here. The Buccaneers are too banged up to keep pace with Allen’s offense.
Stay Away: Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders
The Raiders are really bad, but I can’t trust the Cowboys even coming off the bye week. Dallas lost at home to Arizona the last time we saw them. Maybe the arrival of Quinnen Williams will make a difference, but I’m not willing to put money on that.
Parlay: Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders (Spain); Bengals (+5.5) at Steelers; Broncos (+3.5) vs. Chiefs
The Commanders might not win a game again this season and could roll over in Spain vs. the Dolphins. The Bengals’ high-scoring offense could keep the game close against the Steelers’ suspect defense. And I’ll take a chance on the Broncos’ stout defense to stay within striking distance of the Chiefs for most of the game.
Favorite Fave: Chargers (-3) at Jaguars
The Chargers have regained their rhythm while the Jaguars have faded. L.A. will be too physical for Jacksonville on both sides of the ball
Best Over/Under Total: Lions-Eagles (under 46.5, -105)
With the Eagles involved, I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring, playoff-like matchup on
